Elon Musk’s $44 billion tumultuous Twitter acquisition seems more shaky by the day, particularly as the issue around spam and bots remains unresolved. The Washington Post reported on July 7 that the deal was “in serious jeopardy.”

                By                    Yaёl Bizouati-Kennedy

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Following the report, shares of Twitter were down 4.1% in pre-market trading on July 8. The shares are down 9% year-to-date, and at $37.33 early on July 8 — much lower than the $54.20 price Musk agreed upon. 

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But now, The Washington Post reported that Musk’s team has concluded that the data is not verifiable and is now “expected to take potentially drastic action,” which likely signals “a change in direction from Musk’s team.”

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note that there is still a 35% chance Musk decides to walk away from the deal and try to pay the $1 billion breakup fee — and that Musk may likely end up “in a nasty court battle with Twitter’s Board for the coming months.”

Ives added that the $54.20 price is “essentially out the window” and that in the scenario that Musk walks away from the deal, “Twitter’s stock on a standalone basis given social media ad headwinds and its peer group is worth $30 or potentially lower depending on the growth monetization trajectory looking ahead.”

“We see three paths ahead for Twitter and Musk. 1) deal closes without issues at $54.20 (less than 5% chance in our opinion), 2) deal happens but at a renegotiated price in the $42-$45 range (60% chance), or 3) Musk looks to exit stage left and tries to pay $1 billion breakup fee and Twitter Board fights Musk in an elongated court battle (35% chance),” Ives added.

Twitter Maintains Argument About Fake Accounts, Spam

As for Twitter, the company reiterated its defense about the spam and bots issues — saying they make up less than 5% of the company’s daily monetizable users — on July 7, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Late last month, Twitter’s board recommended unanimously that shareholders approve the $44 billion sale of the company to Musk, according to a June 21 Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing.

“The Twitter Board, after considering various factors described in the section of this proxy statement captioned ‘The Merger-Recommendation of the Twitter Board and Reasons for the Merger,’ has unanimously: (1) determined that the merger agreement is advisable and the merger and the other transactions contemplated by the merger agreement are fair to, advisable and in the best interests of Twitter and its stockholders,” according to the filing.

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